Population, Urbanization, & Modern Cities

SPEIDEL, J. J., RAIFMAN, S., THOMPSON, K. M. J. 

This report states that in order to address climate change and food insecurity, it is necessary to slow population growth, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian countries. The most cost-effective way to achieve this is by promoting family planning and empowering women and girls. To meet this end, the Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health recommends collaboration across various sectors to increase family planning funding by 5.3 billion dollars each year. Two-thirds of the funding would come from foreign aid donors and the remaining one-third from developing countries. The funding would satisfy the demand for contraceptives, which in turn will prevent unwanted pregnancies and unintended births. Dropping the fertility level will also reduce the demand for police. Further, collaboration will increase the efficacy of the programs while reducing the cost for all donors. Additionally, tasking researchers to gather better research regarding the link between family planning, climate change, and food insecurity will provide the strong evidence base needed to curate vigorous policy in developing countries and institutions. Lastly, the Center recommends working toward a shared vision for family planning and reproductive health to generate sustainable political and financial support.

This plan will be feasible if developing countries are able to recognize and prioritize family planning as one of the best and most cost-effective solutions to combating climate change and food insecurity. There are already several programs and institutions dedicated to funding family planning that are able to help generate accurate models of the link between overpopulation, climate change, and food insecurity. However, there may be a barrier considering the global attitude has shifted more toward individualism rather than collectivism.

Dr. J. Joseph Speidel serves as the chair of the board of directors at Population Connection and previously served as founding co-chair and a member of the board of the Funders Network on Population, Reproductive Health & Rights. He has won several awards for his contributions to international family planning and population.

Speidel, J.J. et. al. (2015, February). By Slowing Population Growth, Family Planning Can Help Address Food Insecurity and Climate Change. UCSF Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health. https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/pdfs/UCSF_Population_Climate_Food_Feb_3_2015.pdf

Thayer, B.

This article considers the relationship between population and great power wars, small power wars, civil wars, and terrorism. A surplus of males in a state tends to increase the risk of conflict due to the fact that the governments often see this surplus as replacement soldiers in war. This increases the risk of the state partaking in international conflict and undertaking expansionism because there is more of the population to replace the death toll acquired during conflicts. In great power wars, the states tend to be more stable due to decreasing population, however, several states have made attempts at increasing the population in order to match the military population of its neighboring countries to decrease the risk of vulnerability in war. In small power wars, the states’ population growth tends to create a “youth bulge (youth population overwhelms the adult population),” that strains resources and often creates a surplus of males. The growing youth population in developing countries tends to stress weak economies and increase urbanization leading to violent conflict and possible state failure. Additionally, increased migration to neighboring states heightens the risk of conflict with the host country. 

In civil war population growth and change, specifically the addition/expansion of ethnic groups, increases the risk of conflict due to the demographic balance of power dynamics and the fear of some losing their dominant position. Rapid urbanization can stress infrastructure and job opportunities, leading people to participate in gangs, paramilitary activity, religion, and radical ideologies. Most civil revolutions occur when youth bulges are present. In cases of terrorism, Islamic fundamentalist terrorist groups tend to utilize youth bulges to their advantage to create an army of youth who are easily impressionable and easy targets. In Islamic countries whose infant mortality rates decreased and total fertility rate increased, a youth bulge tends to occur causing a surplus of males with little to no expectation of employment, unable to get an education, and unable to start families of their own-these males become easy targets for radicalization. Islamic polygyny plays a role as non-alpha males who are unable to partake in this practice tend to be victims of social violence as they have no social and monetary capital, thus enabling them to turn to radicalized groups in exchange for power in the afterlife. Islamic polygyny is associated with a lack of female autonomy and an inability to use contraception, increasing violence and fertility rates. While this paper is dated, it provided valuable information on a topic that is not yet emphasized in regard to the conversation around overpopulation, and the information/political trends still match modern data.

Dr. Bradley Thayer is an American political researcher who specializes in international politics and conflict. 

Thayer B. A. (2009). Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 364(1532), 3081–3092. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0151

The UNPFA explains that the dramatic increase in world population is due to changing fertility and life expectancy rates, increased migration, and the youth population. Despite fertility rates declining, it is not declining faster than the mortality rate. Global life expectancy (survival) continues to increase with the advancement of modern medicine, especially concerning children and adolescents in the world's least developed countries, and a decrease in global poverty. Urbanization has increased due to people moving out of rural areas and into urbanized areas, such as cities. 

This is an official source written by scholars of the United Nations Population Fund, who are dedicated to tackling the population issue since the agency’s establishment in 1969.

United Nations Population Fund. (2022, October). World Population Trends. https://www.unfpa.org/world-population-trends#summery105945